THN Penguins Predictions: Which prospect will break camp?

With a new season just around the corner, the Pittsburgh Penguins are gearing up for yet another training camp.

But this time around – unlike in seasons past – 2024-25 could be full of surprises.

View the original article to see embedded media.

As such, we will break down some storylines to expect this season and provide you with some bold – and some not-so-bold – predictions for the 2024-25 campaign.

Next up: Which Penguins’ prospect will break the NHL roster out of training camp?

Kelsey’s Prediction

I know a ton of folks are clamoring for Rutger McGroarty to make the team out of training camp. I have been one of those people. In fact, I predicted that he’d crack the final 23-man roster.

But three training camp sessions in, I’ve changed my tune a bit about which prospect is most likely to make the team from the jump.

I believe that prospect is Vasily Ponomarev.

I’ve sung my praises about Ponomarev’s body of work on here in a few different pieces, and, most recently, in a piece about his showing in the Prospects Challenge. But watching him in the early days of camp has even further corroborated those initial observations.

He’s fast. He’s tenacious. He’s relentless. He’s a monster forechecker. He wins puck battles and drives possession in the offensive zone. He’s good on the PK and responsible in the defensive zone. And he’s got some nasty skills as well, including a shot with some deception and sneakily soft hands.

He also made a ridiculous no-look pass in a drill on Friday (doesn’t look like much from this angle, but it was spectacular).

Head coach Mike Sullivan also praised Ponomarev’s work in camp during his Thursday press conference:

This is the exact type of player the Penguins have been missing in their bottom-six. When Ponomarev was brought over in the Jake Guentzel trade last season, many Hurricanes’ fans echoed the sentiment that they felt he could be a good third-line center in the NHL.

I am starting to see the vision there. He’s just a very reliable player in all three zones, and – like Sully said – he’s got a great motor.

Another reason why I think it might be Ponomarev over McGroarty at this point is because the organization will want to make sure that McGroarty is getting reps every day in a lineup. I don’t think that would happen initially in Pittsburgh, given the forwards who are, presumably, going to make the roster.

Related: THN Penguins’ Predictions: What Will the Final 23-Man Roster Look Like?

While it would be nice to see Ponomarev get the starting nod for every game, I don’t necessarily think it’s detrimental to his development if he doesn’t. I think the Penguins would be more comfortable holding him out of a lineup or two than they would with McGroarty.

But above all, I think he is very clearly the most NHL-ready out of any of the prospects at training camp. He only has two NHL games under his belt – along with a goal and an assist – but I think that’s going to change very soon.

Ryan’s Prediction

McGroarty is the top dog in the Penguins prospect pool and is almost guaranteed a spot in the opening night lineup. Why is he the safe bet to make it? His desire to play, contribute, and bet on himself.

Not every day a Hobey Baker Finalist finds their way into an NHL lineup, but that’s the type of skill that Pittsburgh would get with McGroarty hopping over the boards every night.

Of course, if the 20-year-old gets to skate on the same line as Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin, it will also be a cautionary tale of how to protect an asset while they spread their wings.

McGroaty is talented but not on the same level as Crosby, Connor McDavid, or even Connor Bedard. This means that the Penguins need to protect him, whether it’s on the ice against tougher opponents, on the bench when he’s gripping his stick too hard, or in the dressing room if he’s stuck in a deep slump and is on the verge of a stint in the AHL.

Related: THN Penguins Predictions: Which player will have a breakout season?

However, if McGroarty connects with his linemates and projects to be a top-six forward, there’s a chance he could be the injection of youth the Penguins have desperately needed over the years.

But the catch with someone like McGroarty is that head coach Mike Sullivan loves his slow-aging veterans and doesn’t have a proven track record of grooming the next generation of prospects into stars.

Although Sullivan isn’t at the same level as John Tortorella regarding his players, McGroarty’s leash could be short, and a handful of bad games could end his first stint in the NHL.

Ultimately, Penguins fans should be lining up to watch the former 14th overall pick play. He bet on himself by requesting a trade out of Winnipeg because he had a successful stay at the University of Michigan and is ready to take his game to the next level.

By landing in Pittsburgh, he will be an apprentice under Crosby, one of the game’s greatest players and leaders. This will give him a chance to absorb everything and become a future leader of the next generation.

Picking McGroarty is the safe play here, but this decision is based not only on his performances but also on how he’s conducted himself since his initial request in June.

Attending training camp is only the first step; cracking the lineup is the next significant milestone in what could be a promising career.

Achieving both at his age would be a considerable accomplishment, proving that he’s set out to become an everyday NHLer and put in the work to make it happen.

Related: THN Penguins Predictions: Which player is poised for a bounceback season?