Three takeaways from Sharks’ 0-8-1 start to 2023-24 NHL season originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area
The Sharks are bad.
That’s it. That’s my takeaway from the Sharks’ nine-game losing streak to start the 2023-24 NHL season.
And if that was my lone takeaway from San Jose’s season so far, where they’ve tied 1993-94’s franchise-worst 0-8-1 beginning, that would be justifiable.
But there are 73 games left to play, and plenty of time for the Sharks to change and add to the narrative of this wayward campaign.
Here’s what they’ve got to improve – it’s a long list — and a literal handful of bright spots.
Where do Sharks need to improve?
Well, pretty much everywhere.
At 5-on-5, they have a NHL-worst minus-16 Goal Differential.
Under the hood, it’s just as ugly. The Sharks haven’t been an unlucky team or betrayed by poor goaltending.
Per Evolving Hockey, the Sharks have a 41.35 Corsi percentage at 5-on-5. Corsi, or shot attempts, is a proxy for puck possession. That figure is 31st in the NHL.
In terms of actual puck possession, per SPORTLOGiQ, the Sharks have averaged 3:30 of Offensive Zone Possession Time at even strength per game. They’ve allowed 6:53 a game. So essentially, the Sharks are allowing their opponents to double them up in offensive zone time every game.
That’s not a recipe for success. There’s a reason why they’ve scored just nine goals in nine games.
“We have to hold onto pucks in the offensive zone,” Anthony Duclair said. “That’s the biggest thing we’re talking about is our offensive zone time.”
On the power play, the Sharks have a 12.5 success percentage, 25th in the NHL.
Again, if you look deeper, the picture doesn’t look any prettier. Expected Goals, a proxy for essentially scoring chance quality, has the Sharks 28th in the NHL in this category.
On the penalty kill, typically a San Jose strength, the Sharks have a 76.5 kill rate, which actually puts them about league-average, 18th in the NHL.
Hallelujah!
But here, the Sharks might have been bailed out by their goaltending so far – their Short-Handed Expected Goals Against is 31st in the league.
Look, you don’t need me to tell you that the Sharks have been bad. Though sometimes, a team can have a losing record but be playing winning hockey beneath the surface – this isn’t the case here.
Being a better team?
Losing breeds a losing attitude.
Case in point, what the Sharks allowed to happen to goalie Mackenzie Blackwood in Nashville on Oct. 21.
Down 5-1 with four minutes to go, the Sharks allowed Filip Forsberg to essentially body slam Blackwood – granted, Forsberg was chasing a loose puck – without any repercussions.
Alternate captain Tomas Hertl, who was not on the ice at the time, called out his teammates after the game: “It just can’t happen. Especially last five minutes, nobody cares if anybody takes an extra two minutes [of a retaliatory penalty].”
The Sharks apologized to Blackwood and say they’ve moved on. Head coach David Quinn considered it a one-off incident. But even he conceded that morale was low at that point of the game, which might have contributed to San Jose’s lack of engagement when their goalie got crushed.
Later on this road trip, there was another moment, not as egregious, but which spoke to a team still working on being a team.
Down 2-0 in the first period to the Tampa Bay Lightning on Oct. 26, Blackwood lost his stick in the corner. The Sharks were under heavy fire, but even after they cleared the puck, no one, not even those nearby, went to fetch the goalie’s stick. It wasn’t until the Sharks had clear possession the other way, that Blackwood had to go fetch his stick himself.
“It’s not being alert,” Quinn said after the game, before adding this caveat. “I’d have to look at it again, to see if there was an opportunity. Sometimes, play is going on, you’re gonna have an opportunity to get him his stick, we might be able to slide it to him. But be careful of that because we could take a penalty too.”
It’s also possible that Blackwood didn’t communicate to his teammates that he needed help. But regardless, it speaks to a team that is still struggling to be there for each other, win or lose.
Mario Ferraro was speaking about something else after this rout, but it’s apt.
“I think, just narrowing it down to the little things and our compete and being good teammates and working hard every night, until we’re consistent with that, we can’t worry about scoring,” the alternate captain said. “It’s easy, when games get tough like this, the season being tough as it is right now, we can kind of get away from supporting each other and building each other up and being positive.”
What has gone right for Sharks?
This is going to be a short section.
There have been flashes of promising play from youngsters like William Eklund, Fabian Zetterlund, Filip Zadina and Ty Emberson, potential building blocks for the future.
But about the only thing that’s gone really right for the Sharks this season is their goaltending. Between Blackwood and Kaapo Kahkonen, the Sharks can’t blame their netminders for the hole that they’re in.
On the surface, their 90.12 Save Percentage is league-average, 17th in the NHL. But that stat doesn’t take into consideration the volume of high-danger chances that their keepers have faced.
By one metric that does take shot quality into account, the Sharks have received top-10 goaltending from their duo.
Evolving Hockey’s Goals Saved Above Expected stat attempts to judge how many goals a goaltender has saved above or below what they were expected to, based on shot quality.
In this category, the Blackwood (+3.25) and Kahkonen (+2.75) duo, as of Oct. 29, have saved six more goals than expected. That’s seventh in the league.
Both goalies are 27 years old, in their primes and are on similar contracts: Kahkonen is a UFA after this season, currently with a $2.75 million AAV, while Blackwood has this year and next with a $2.35 million AAV.
It’s still early, early in the season, but considering the Sharks’ struggles in net over the last half-decade, finding a long-term solution between the pipes, be it Blackwood or Kahkonen or both, would be a huge win.
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