The Maple Leafs game Saturday night is followed by a gap in preseason play until Thursday night against the Detroit Red Wings, and while that doesn’t mean cuts are coming Sunday or even Monday, history says that a lot of lines are going to be drawn through players names in the coming days. Where it is interesting is that there are a lot of players who will require waivers in order to make the six kilometer or 3-hour drive down the road to the Coca-Cola Coliseum to join the Marlies.
Here’s the breakdown of notable players and their waivers situation.
Waivers exempt
Topi Niemela, Jacob Quillan, Cade Webber, Nikita Grebenkin, and Dennis Hildeby are some of the notable youngsters that make up the bulk of the soon to Marlies and they do not require waivers. The fact that sending them to Marlies is such an easy move it would have taken a lot for any of them to play their way onto the Maple Leafs roster out of training camp. That said, it looked like Grebenkin might have been capable of sparking that conversation but now it seems like a number of injuries would be required to reignite that talk.
As exciting as new young players on the Leafs would be, it is essentially Cowan or bust at this point, and of course, Easton Cowan doesn’t require waivers either, he’d just require an assignment to London of the Ontario Hockey League and wouldn’t be easily recalled accept in an emergency recall situation.
Some other notable exemptions, due to their age, are Cedric Pare and Nicolas Mattinen. Despite being 25 and 26 respectively, both are still waivers exempt and while there likely much risk of a claim, both can be sent down without fuss.
Roni Hirvonen, Ryan Tverberg, Ty Voit, Braeden Kressler, William Villeneuve, Mikko Kokkonen, Artur Akhtyamov, and Slava Peksa round out the list.
Pro Tryouts/AHL Contracts
Max Pacioretty is sticking with the Leafs, but I’ll mention him here anyway. Players like Jon Gillies or Steven Lorentz, or any AHL contract players like Alex Nylander, Joseph Blandisi, or Kyle Clifford, if they were to receive NHL contracts, would require waivers.
The interesting player here is Steven Lorentz, who hasn’t exactly made a case for an NHL role, but might not accept just an AHL deal to stay around the Leafs organization. If the Leafs sign Lorentz to an NHL deal but want to start him in the AHL, he would require waivers and you can’t completely dismiss the idea of him being claimed off of waivers.
The Leafs were able to structure Martin Jones’ contract with a bonus that prevented a waivers claim when he was signed last year. It is entirely possible the Leafs do the same this time around too.
Waivers required
Phillippe Myers has looked strong in training camp and the preseason so far and while the AHL seems like the obvious course of action for Myers, he seems capable of taking on a bottom pairing role on a number of NHL teams. The combination of size and lack of cost might get him a look, but if a team is making a training camp waivers claim, you’d assume they would be chasing more upside than going in a depth direction. Myers might be someone a GM is eying for a certain role though.
Alex Steeves is the player I’d claim if I was a rival GM. Steeves has looked good at the AHL level and during his NHL callup last season and during the preseason this year he’s demonstrated the ability to be a pain in the ass of his opponents, with a bit of scoring upside. Steeves is a far more interesting option for the Maple Leafs than someone like Lorentz and could have more to add to the Leafs at this point than incumbents like Jarnkrok, Kampf, and Reaves, but it seems the Leafs want him back in the AHL. I’d wonder if teams like Pittsburgh, New Jersey, or Ottawa that have hockey operations people familiar with Steeves under their employ will take a gamble on the winger who seems deserving of a chance.
Nick Abruzzese might not be as far along as Steeves, but it is entirely possible that there is a team that views him as the right kind of playmaking depth for their roster. He’s a smart player but his game isn’t as rounded out as Steeves’ is so it is far more likely he clears to the AHL.
Marshall Rifai has been one potentially Marlies bound player who has been able to stick around the Leafs top group. He plays the kind of bottom pairing game that coaches crave. He’s low excitement, positional, and can be physical. The Leafs seem to like him and that means that other teams probably will too and sneaking him through waivers might not be easy.
Conor Timmins is a player the Leafs are probably good with either way if he’s claimed or not, it’s just whether or not his offensive ability is something the Leafs want to keep as an option to swap in on their third pairing. Timmins’ $1.1M cap hit creates space as well as makes him a tougher sell to claim off of waivers. His underlying numbers that have the sheltered third pairing offensive defenceman bump might turn a few heads.
Matt Murray at $875k might be a worthwhile gamble for some. I’m not sure how confident anyone is of Murray at the NHL level, but while Boston waits on Jeremy Swayman to get sorted out, Murray could be a backup option to Korpisalo, and claiming more allows them to screw over the Leafs goaltending depth chart. Honestly, if I were the Leafs I would waive Murray sooner rather than later just to get a better understanding of the current state of their goaltending.
Injuries
Dakota Mermis is in a holding pattern due to his injury and potentially so is Connor Dewar, depending on whether the Leafs see him as a surefire Maple Leaf or not to start the year after missing camp. Once they are activated both would require waivers and Dewar’s situation will be interesting.
Longshots for waivers
Both Pontus Holmberg and Nick Robertson require waivers and would almost certainly be claimed. Both look to have earned NHL jobs though.
Unlikely to get waived but interesting to suggest
Ryan Reaves, Calle Jarnkrok, and David Kampf are interesting suggestions from a cap relief perspective, but I’m not sure you can point to anyone on the depth chart and say the Leafs need to rock the boat this much. The fact that they all carry term and salary beyond the league minimum, they would more than likely clear waivers and potentially give Toronto a bit of time to test out their other options before playing these veterans, but waivers can leave a sour taste in a player’s mouth and it’s a lot easier to sit behind a keyboard and suggest these options than it is to tell them to their face that they will be spending some time in the AHL simply because the Leafs are curious about another player.
The salary cap situation
As things sit today, with the projected Maple Leafs roster on PuckPedia, Toronto sits $1.08M over the salary cap, and that likely means that Conor Timmins will be amongst the group waived. With Max Pacioretty still unsigned, and the desire to get an Easton Cowan trial run at the start of the season, it is possible that we see a trade or one of those unlikely players being waived in order to make the ideal Leafs roster work.
It is likely the more intriguing decisions will be made closer to roster finalization, and the immediate moves by the Leafs will focus more or getting the players who are completely out of consideration for NHL roles this season out of training camp, with the tough decisions to follow the remaining two preseason games.
