It’s been a pretty quiet August without much to report on from a Toronto Maple Leafs perspective, aside from John Tavares passing the captaincy torch to Auston Matthews last week. Outside of that, we’re truly in the dog days of summer and quickly approaching the point where the countdown to training camp begins.
Having said this, that doesn’t mean we can’t take league-wide news and try to find a way to connect it to the Leafs. We’re going to exercise that practice today with the recent offer-sheet drama that saw the St. Louis Blues poach forward Dylan Holloway and defenceman Philip Broberg from the Edmonton Oilers, at cap hits of $2.29 million and $4.58 million, respectively. Both players are former first-round picks of the Oilers, selecting Broberg eighth overall in 2019 and Holloway 14th overall in 2020.
While both players have had a bit of a slow development arc, they’ve still got lots of upside and will get more of a chance to showcase what they can do. The Blues had to have been high on Broberg specifically, to offer him the steeper side of $4.5 million with only 22 games played in 2023-24 and 81 for his career, but if you have the cap space to do so, there are worse ways to blow that kind of money.
Nick Robertson is a pending restricted free agent this season and has reportedly requested a trade out of Toronto, but the Leafs are reluctant to grant that wish. There’s always the possibility that another team hits them with an offer sheet and tries to poach him from the organization, but at this point, his tenure with the team has been rocky and inconsistent enough that even if that offer sheet does happen, it’s not something that should drastically alter their plans. The player they SHOULD be worried about eventually getting an offer sheet is Matthew Knies, and while he’s not a free agent until after the 2024-25 season, they should avoid that conversation altogether and lock him up long-term as soon as possible.
There’s something about Knies that sets him apart from other players. When you look at his EliteProspects page, his stats don’t necessarily jump off the page at you. Only twice in his career has he produced at a rate above a point-per-game rate, and he was drafted at a time when he didn’t necessarily improve on his first season in the USHL (United States Hockey League). But as he wrapped up his college career with the University of Minnesota and eventually signed his entry-level contract at the end of the 2022-23 season, it became apparent that he was already light years ahead of where the majority of rookies are when they step foot in the NHL for the first time.
Knies joined the Leafs for their playoff run that year and seemed to be on the ice for just about every big goal for the Leafs in that beloved first-round series. He was on the ice when Ryan O’Reilly scored the tying goal in Game 3, when Morgan Rielly scored the overtime winner in that same game, when Alex Kerfoot scored the overtime winner in Game 4, and he assisted on John Tavares’ series-clinching overtime winner in Game 6. He also followed things up with his first-ever professional goal, scoring a cheeky between-the-legs goal against the Florida Panthers in Round 2.
If you want to link things back to a more recent playoff run, Knies had two goals in the first round against the Boston Bruins in 2023-24, including the overtime winner in Game 5.
They say that you can’t teach clutch, and for Knies to be in and around so many important goals while representing a team that has so few opportunities to score big goals, this notion rings true. Even beyond the clutch gene, he’s got a style of play that the Leafs sorely lack in their top-end forwards. Standing at 6-foot-3 and 217 pounds, he led all Leafs forwards in hits with 169 and gives them a power forward presence with offensive ability that they’ve lacked since Zach Hyman was a Leaf. On that note, to give you some context in regards to the upside Knies has, he registered 15 goals and 35 points in 80 games in his age-21 season. Hyman played his first full season with the Leafs at age 24 and recorded ten goals and 28 points in his rookie season. In 2024, Hyman is a 50-goal scorer alongside Connor McDavid.
That doesn’t mean Knies is guaranteed to be a 50-goal scorer down the line. Hell, he might not even hit 40. However, displaying that kind of upside as a 21-year-old is incredibly impressive, especially when you combine it with his fearlessness of his opponents and his physical play. There’s a reason that he spent much of last season playing alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, despite having the versatility to play all around the lineup.
If he takes a step forward this season, which it’s safe to say he will barring a massive hiccup, there will no doubt be teams in the league who will consider doing what the Blues did to the Oilers and offer-sheeting him. To avoid this headache altogether, the Leafs would be wise to get Knies locked up before the upcoming season begins. Not to a bridge deal, but ideally to a long-term deal that brings him to unrestricted free agency at age 27. The reality is, it will probably take something north of $5 million to get the deal done, but it’s a risk the Leafs should be taking at this point. Investing in the future is something that’s become more and more common in today’s NHL, and if they let him play out this season without a new deal, that price will only increase and attract more eyes from other teams next season.
The Leafs have a unique opportunity to get ahead of the pack and get one of their future stars locked up at a somewhat reasonable price. Think William Nylander’s first contract rather than Mitch Marner’s. While an extension for the latter is something that’s been dominating headlines this summer, the Knies extension is arguably just as important. If they lose him, they don’t have another player in the system with his combination of skill, build, and clutch. If the Leafs don’t want to be on the Oilers’ end of an offer sheet article next summer, they should ramp up negotiations and take care of it before the season starts.
