It’s always strange when a perpetual Stanley Cup contender resorts to the gimmicky motivational tactic of ‘nobody believes in us’ but the Boston Bruins have used this as their governing principle for the past three years and resentment is one hell of an accelerant. Boston has effectively used the notion of age-related decline as fuel and in spite of the fact that it operated as a sub-50 percent possession team last season, it still found a way to eliminate the Toronto Maple Leafs in seven games.
Being mindful of the outlet I’m writing for, there’s no point in traumatizing our audience again with David Pastrnak’s series-winning goal, in what was the closest, most agonizing of the four Maple Leafs-Bruins series of this century. Toronto almost came back from a 3-1 series deficit, while Auston Matthews and William Nylander were sidelines for parts of the series due to illness and injury, but it’s a moot point. Boston advanced to the second round, where it was eliminated by the eventual Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers in six games.
In large part due to superlative campaigns from Pastrnak, Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman, the Bruins still put together an 109-point season during the first year of Brad Marchand’s captaincy, who took over the ‘C’ from the retired Patrice Bergeron. And this summer was a period of flux and transition for the Bruins — the ‘nobody believes us’ mantra may be a lot more honest this season, with Ullmark traded to the Ottawa Senators, Jake DeBrusk, Jesper Boqvist, Jakub Lauko, Derek Forbort all departed in free agency, while veterans Kevin Shattenkirk and James van Riemsdyk remain unsigned at the time of this filing.
Boston is effectively making a calculated bet that Elias Lindholm can provide some much-needed secondary scoring that was often lacking last year, while Nikita Zadorov joins a veteran blue line looking to regain some of its physical identity. It’s an interesting hedge as Jim Montgomery runs a disciplined counterattacking philosophy that is shared throughout his four lines, and it’ll be compelling to see how both players acclimate.
Swayman’s contract status remains unresolved and as it currently stands, Joonas Korpisalo is projected to be the Bruins’ opening night starter, coming off a brutal year with the Senators. This development could effectively dictate the Bruins’ trajectory from second-tier Cup contender to fighting for their playoff lives. But of course, as we’ve learned, anything is possible when you employ David Pastrnak. Here’s what you need to know about the 2024-25 Boston Bruins.
Jeremy Swayman’s contract status looms large over the Bruins’ prospectus
Swayman pulled off a very difficult, usurping the reigning Vezina Trophy winner in Ullmark to become the Bruins’ playoff starter after effectively letting both goaltenders figure it out on a trial-and-error basis versus the Maple Leafs. The restricted free agent saved 18.4 goals above expected at 5-on-5 via MoneyPuck, the fourth-best total in the NHL. It was the ultimate luxury for the Bruins to be able to rotate between two elite goaltenders and just let form win out. And in a matter of months, the Bruins may have squandered this advantage.
By all accounts, Swayman is expected to sign with the Bruins, but he’s reportedly looking for a new contract that’s worth $10 million or greater annually. And in this space, we’ve argued for players getting their money, they’ve earned the fruits of their labour. The stark reality is that Swayman’s contract status ultimately put the Bruins’ forecast into pending status: if Swayman doesn’t sign, or stages a holdout, they could be fighting for a wild-card spot as Korpisalo looks to bounce back in a much better defensive environment.
Swayman is looking for a long-term pact with the Bruins and they’ve effectively cleared space for him to be the team’s goaltender of the next decade by jettisoning Ullmark off to another Atlantic team for a somewhat underwhelming return. And considering that Swayman and Ullmark’s shared excellence, combined with Pastrnak’s brilliant individual scoring exploits masked a lot of deficiencies for the Bruins, this is an impending contract scenario that is now a full-scale, five-alarm fire for both parties to figure out.
Will Swayman’s holdout continue into the regular season? If he misses any time at all, the Bruins’ foundation may be laid bare for the world to see, one of the perils of trying to perpetually contend in the salary-cap era.
Brad Marchand isn’t planning on missing time after three surgeries
Marchand has been the greatest proponent of the ‘no one believes in us’ mantra that has been repeated and now, it may be time to take this notion seriously. Boston’s captain revealed Tuesday that he underwent three surgeries this summer — elbow, groin and abdominal, while playing with the torn tendon in his elbow for the majority of the 2023-24 campaign.
“This summer is not typical for what I’m used to,” Marchand said via The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa. “It might take until the season. It might take a little bit into the season. But I’ll treat the next two months like the summer — train and skate the way I normally would during the summer.”
It’s a true testament to Marchand’s resilience that he was able to function at a high level throughout the playoffs while playing through injuries that would’ve rendered most players on the sidelines. Marchand authored his second-best playoff performance of his decorated career against the Maple Leafs and was a menace, both as an offensive threat and pest. Does Marchand have another 67-point season in him, when he turns 37 in May?
Brad Marchand underwent three surgeries this past summer. Elbow (torn tendon), groin, and abdominal. Played through elbow injury all 2023-24, while other two injuries happened late in 2023-24 regular season.
— Ty Anderson (@_TyAnderson) September 3, 2024
For the first time since the 2010-11 season — where Marchand admittedly won his first Stanley Cup and scored two goals in the series-clinching Game 7 against the Vancouver Canucks — Boston controlled fewer than 50 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5 when Marchand was on the ice, but he did sport a plus-eight goal differential. Marchand will still disproportionately create his offense off rush chances, taking full advantage when the opponent can’t get their defence set, but he’ll need to generate offence in set scenarios far more often for a Bruins team that may struggle to score. He also has intangible value as well — I guess it can be quantified, but Marchand is perhaps the best player in the league at drawing penalties, which in turn spurs a Bruins power play focused on getting optimal looks for Pastrnak.
Brad Marchand on contract talks with the Bruins:
“I won’t ever talk about contract stuff in the media. … there’s enough respect between the two sides that we can deal with it.” pic.twitter.com/62Fv6LZd8Q
— Conor Ryan (@ConorRyan_93) September 3, 2024
Marchand is also entering a contract year and while it would just seem outright weird to see him in another uniform, there’s a distinct possibility that the Bruins try to get younger, with Matthew Poitras graduating from prospect to roster mainstay, while he’s operating as the last remnant of the 2011 title team. He’s coming off consecutive 67-point seasons and given that Marchand has used external motivation to propel himself into a borderline Hall of Fame career, we’re not counting him out until we see the decline ourselves. Boston’s captain’s form against top competition while battling through injuries and an unresolved contract situation will be one of the storylines that dictates the ceiling and trajectory of its season.
Projected finish: 3rd in Atlantic Division
All stats from NHL.com, Natural Stat Trick and MoneyPuck
