The Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, and Buffalo Sabres have all spent what feels like Titanic-levels of time near the bottom of the Atlantic. Covered in plankton, they have the longest active playoff droughts in the NHL.
Ottawa gets the bronze at seven years, Detroit checks in with eight to claim the silver, and Buffalo is dominating as your gold medalist – the Summer McIntosh of missing the playoffs.
The Sabres have been absent from the postseason for 13 years, longer than anyone in league history.
So, is this the year that one of these flailing clubs ends its drought?
Florida, Boston, Toronto, and Tampa Bay still look like the class of the Atlantic. If that’s the case, then the Sens, Wings, and Sabres will be duking it out for a single wild-card spot. Metro Division squads like Pittsburgh, Washington, New Jersey, and Philadelphia will be pressing for that one spot as well.
So, to recap, we’ve got seven teams gunning for one playoff spot? Yeesh.
When framed that way, it seems like a long shot for any of the three Atlantic Division teams to get off the playoff schneid. But in the world of NHL guesswork, we can’t simply look at last season and assume history will repeat itself.
Tampa Bay just parted ways with Steve Stamkos and Mikhail Sergachev.
Boston’s decline has been predicted (very wrongly) for a couple of years now.
Maybe Florida has a Cup hangover or Sergei Bobrovsky reverts to bouts of inconsistency that he’s had in the past.
Maybe this is the year the Leafs implode during the regular season instead of the playoffs.
As a fan, you can drive yourself crazy worrying about what other teams may or may not do. The Sens, Wings, and Sabres will simply focus on what they control—their own performances. Their goal is to get to, say, at least 95 points this season, and things should take care of themselves.
So which of these three teams is most likely to do that?
Ottawa Senators:
2022-23 Record: 39-35-8, 86pts, 6th in the Atlantic, six points out of Wild Card Spot
2023-24 Record: 37-41-4, 78pts, 7th in the Atlantic, 13 points out of Wild Card spot
Additions: G Linus Ullmark, D Nick Jensen, F David Perrron, F Michael Amadio, F Noah Gregor
Subtractions: G Joonas Korpisalo, D Jakob Chychrun, D Erik Brannstrom, F Mathieu Joseph, F Parker Kelly, F Mark Kastelic
Ullmark is the major addition this season, turning a position of weakness into an area of strength. A bounce back for Tim Stutzle and getting full seasons out of Shane Pinto and Josh Norris will be huge. The other factors are the rebalancing of the lineup and bringing in vets who play well without the puck. The core is now another year older, sick of losing, and surely more focused after the removal of last year’s incessant distractions.
However, the Sens are asking a lot in several areas. With 35 points in 92 career games, is Ridly Greig ready for top-six duty? Can Norris be counted on, health-wise? Will swapping out Chychrun for Jensen suddenly stabilize the blue line? Is that bottom-pairing defence good enough?
Detroit Red Wings:
2022-23 Record: 35-37-10, 80pts, 7th in Atlantic, 12 pts out of Wild Card Spot
2023-24 Record: 41-32-9, 91pts, 5th in Atlantic, lost tie for Wild Card Spot (reg wins)
Additions: G Cam Talbot, D Erik Gustafsson, F Vladimir Tarasenko, F Tyler Motte
Subtractions: G James Reimer, D Shayne Gostisbehere, D Jake Walman, F David Perron, F Daniel Sprong, F Robby Fabbri
Last season, Detroit came as close as they could get to breaking out of their playoff funk. But the goaltending duo of Cam Talbot and Alex Lyon is pause for thought this fall. Their combined age is 68, and the Wings have invested in them a combined total of $3.4 million. It’s also a tall order, almost as tall as he is, for 21-year-old Simon Edvinsson to come in and be an impact player right away. Shayne Gostibehere’s 56 points on the back end won’t be easy to replace.
Buffalo Sabres
2022-23 Record: 42-33-7, 91pts, 5th in Atlantic, one point out of Wild Card Spot
2023-24 Record: 39-37-6, 84 pts, 6th in Atlantic, seven points out of Wild Card Spot
Additions: F Jason Zucker, F Beck Malenstyn, F Ryan McLeod, F Sam Lafferty, F Nicolas Aube-Kubel, G James Reimer
Subtractions: F Jeff Skinner, F Matt Savoie, D Victor Olofsson, F Zemgus Girgensons
Anchored by Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and Bowen Byram, that excellent young blue-line core is now another year older. They also nicely revamped their fourth line. But the Sabres didn’t do a ton else in the offseason. Zucker isn’t an ideal replacement for Skinner. And giving up Matthew Savoie for Ryan McLeod is questionable, although it does seem like the kind of rebalancing act they were trying to do in Ottawa this summer.
If you look at the strength of the Atlantic Division and the many evenly ranked teams bearing down on a single playoff spot (two at best), then combine that with the question marks in Ottawa, Buffalo, and Detroit, it’ll be a surprise if one of the Atlantic playoff droughts ends next spring.
But stranger things have happened and if we had to choose one, it would be Ottawa. Their list of distractions last season was a long scroll: injuries, the coaching change, the GM change, the ownership change, the Pinto suspension for a gambling violation, and getting penalized a first-round pick.
Now it’s a fresh, focused start this fall, a much-needed new voice behind the bench, and the removal of all the distractions of the past. Those intangibles could be Ottawa’s ace-in-the-hole.
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