This is an article version of the CBS Sports HQ PM Newsletter, the ultimate daily sports gambling guide. You can sign up to get it in your inbox every weekday afternoon here.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Yankees at Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. | TV: ESPN+
Latest Odds:
Under 9.5
- Key Trend: The under is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
- The Pick: Under 9.5 (-120)
It’s been a while since I’ve included an MLB play in the newsletter. I’ve been immersed in the NBA Playoffs the last few weeks, but since the league has the audacity to take its second day off in the last three, I’ve been left with no other choice. But just because I haven’t included MLB plays in the letter doesn’t mean I haven’t been keeping tabs on baseball. .
I enjoy seeing Yankees fans behave as if the world is ending because their team is only 23-19, while I sit and watch a White Sox team that’s 14-28, but there is one important difference: The Yankees are 23-19 and eight games out of first. The White Sox are 14-28 and 9.5 games out of first. Your division matters and the Yankees are in fourth place, right behind the Toronto team they’ll face tonight.
The Yankees have “struggled” because their offense hasn’t performed at the expected level. They’re still capable of smacking dingers (their 3.92 HR% ranks fifth), but not much else. The team’s wRC+ is at 100 — which means it’s at league average. Their wOBA of .316 ranks 15th and their OBP of .309 is 22nd. That means too many of those homers are solo shots, and when you combine that with a pitching staff that’s been mostly average as well, it’s hard to do more than float a little above .500.
Tonight I’m banking on that inconsistent offense to show up against Alek Manoah. He’s only allowed one dinger in 105 Yankees batters faced, and it was hit by Aaron Judge, who has also struck out seven times in 21 appearances against Manoah. As for Toronto’s offense, it’s been in a funk lately. The Jays have a wOBA of .295 and wRC+ of only 87 over the last week. Those aren’t good numbers. I think the Jays win this game more often than not, so I don’t hate betting them on the moneyline, but for my money, the smarter play is on the under.
Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model is with us on the under, and two of SportsLine’s experts are on the same side of the moneyline too.
💰 The Picks
Getty Images
🏒 NHL
Kraken at Stars, 8 p.m. | TV: ESPN
Latest Odds:
Over 6
The Pick: Over 6 (+100) — We’re betting hockey! If that doesn’t tell you how thin the slate is tonight, nothing should. While I do not claim to be an expert on betting hockey (my track record doing so supports this), this is a Game 7, so I’ll be watching anyway. Plus, now that the Blackhawks are getting Connor Bedard in the draft this summer, I need to begin paying closer attention to the sport again anyway.
Even if I haven’t paid super-close attention, I’ve paid enough to know this: every game in this series has at least six goals scored. Overall, 49 goals were scored in the first six games, or 8.2 per game. That’s a lot. Sure, the tension of a Game 7 could lead to a lower-scoring affair than usual, but considering four of the six games have featured nine goals, a lower-scoring game could still go over with ease!
⚽ Champions League
Inter Milan vs. AC Milan, Tuesday, 3 p.m. | TV: CBS/Paramount+
The Pick: Both Teams to Score (-115) — The biggest news heading into the match is that Rafael Leao is expected back for AC Milan. That’s huge because AC Milan is a different team with him. His absence last week was the primary reason we bet Inter Milan to win, and, well, you saw the result. Inter comes into the second leg with a 2-0 advantage. An advantage I expect they’ll do their best to sit on, but I don’t expect Inter to park the bus entirely.
While Milan didn’t score in the first leg, it had chances and probably should have. Inter blitzed Milan early, jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the first 10 minutes, but Milan kept coming. That’s part of why I don’t expect Inter to sit back because it tried to in the first match and put itself in trouble. With Leao back, I expect Milan to score. With Milan needing to score twice and be aggressive, I also expect that leads to plenty of opportunities for Inter.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: There’s only one A-graded play on the board tonight, and it’s on one side of the moneyline in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Minnesota Twins.
