The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a stand-off with forward Nick Robertson, who has requested a trade, but the team could face the prospect of losing him to an offer sheet if they do not make a decision soon.
According to multiple sources earlier this offseason, including Chris Johnston, Robertson told the Toronto Maple Leafs that he had no intention of re-signing with the team and would like to be traded elsewhere. Since then, however, Leafs GM Brad Treliving has said that there is a great opportunity for Robertson in Toronto and it’s clear the team do not want to lose the 22-year-old, who had the best season of his career with the Leafs in 2023-24 – scoring 14 goals and registering 27 total points in 56 games.
However, more than a month later, things have not progressed in any particular direction and recent events around the league could open up the possibility that the Leafs could lose Robertson in another way: an offer sheet.
Leafs can’t afford a Robertson offer sheet
The Edmonton Oilers, a team that went to the Stanley Cup last season, would undoubtedly like to keep their talented young players around and continue to build a contender for years to come.
However, this was scuppered somewhat recently when the St. Louis Blues put in offer sheets on both forward Dylan Holloway and defenseman Philip Broberg – something that happens quite rarely in the NHL, even more so for two players to be offer sheeted by the same team. The Oilers, who have a tight cap situation, opted not to match the respective offer sheets. Instead, they received a third-round pick for Holloway and a second-round pick for Broberg, making subsequent moves to add Vasily Podkolzin from the Vancouver Canucks and Ty Emberson from the San Jose Sharks.
This kind of move could open the floodgates for other teams to offer sheet a player, forcing a team into a difficult situation either with the cap or with regards to the compensation they would receive. It’s exactly the kind of situation the Toronto Maple Leafs need to avoid with Nick Robertson for one simple reason: they can’t afford it. Financially, the Leafs have just about $1.25 million available in cap space. Robertson isn’t going to sign an offer sheet that low because it would be easy for the Leafs to match and would force him to stick around with a team he has reportedly asked to leave.
If any offer sheet was worth signing for Robertson, it would be one in and around the one Holloway received from the Blues: two years at around a $2.29 million AAV. Holloway was a high draft pick for the Oilers, going 14th overall in 2020, but he has not quite developed into the player the team hoped he would be, with a career-best six goals and nine total points in 38 games last year. Robertson, meanwhile, has already demonstrated better numbers than Holloway. It’s reasonable, then, to expect that Robertson could push for an offer above what Holloway has expected, especially if it is a multi-year deal as well. A $2.29 million AAV would net compensation of just a third-round pick, whereas a deal worth more than that but below $4.581 million would send a second instead. Above that, the compensation begins to involve multiple picks, including first-rounders.
From a compensation standpoint, a third or second-round pick may not be enough value for the Maple Leafs to be willing to lose Robertson for. He has the potential to be a regular top-six forward and if he can put his offensive potential to better use, he could be a valuable player in the long-term. Multiple picks or even players would likely be the preferred value of any trade that involved Robertson, so being faced with the proposition of having to accept compensation as low as a third-round pick wouldn’t sit well with the Leafs.
A second-rounder might be more palatable, especially as the Leafs picked Robertson up 53rd overall in 2019. However, that pick would be a gamble and would be years away from developing into anything of value for a team that is looking to win now. Losing Robertson, who the team purportedly still believes in, for a future gamble doesn’t seem like a move the team would want at this stage.
However, the Leafs may not have much say in the matter unless they make other moves rapidly after receiving such an offer sheet. When a team has an offer sheet put in front of them, they have around a week to decide whether or not to match it. This gives teams time to manoeuvre if necessary and create necessary space. This is something the Toronto Maple Leafs would have to do if Robertson received an offer of $2.29 million or more. As previously mentioned, the Leafs only have around $1.25 million in cap space at present, so the team would have to figure out how to free up at least $1 million from their roster if they were to match an offer sheet for Robertson.
Things get even trickier if the offer sheet is for a higher value. Potentially, the Leafs could have to free up around $3 million to fit in Robertson if they deem him worth that much. Then the team faces the dilemma of, is Robertson’s financial value worth enough to justify not accepting a second-round pick? Can the Leafs realistically fit him in under the cap if he starts to cost over $4 million?
For Robertson, he’d likely have to accept an offer sheet worth that much, regardless of it meaning he’d have to stay with the Leafs, as at least he would get paid a good amount for his time. The Leafs, though, have too many questions to address when considering what to do if an offer sheet is signed by him. Not enough value to give him up versus the financial implications of matching, versus the fact they know he doesn’t want to stick around and may not fit into the lineup in the way he expects.
For the Toronto Maple Leafs, they should just hope that no such offer sheet happens and they can continue to work away at persuading him to stick around, or ultimately move on from him if it truly looks as if nothing can be done.
