The Leafs will look bounce-back from a 6-2 defeat at the hands of the defending champion Knights Thursday versus a Coyotes side that has lost 13 straight matchups.
Joseph Woll is likely to make his first start since December 7 for Toronto, who went 20-11-4 in his absence.
In this article, we’ll break down the relevant game notes ahead of this exciting matchup.
Coyotes vs. Maple Leafs Odds
- Coyotes Moneyline Odds: +205
- Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: -250
- Puck Line Odds: Coyotes +1.5 (-120), Maple Leafs -1.5 (-102)
- Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -120, under -102)
All odds courtesy of Betano and are subject to change.
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Arizona Coyotes
When the Coyotes 13 game losing streak began way back on January 24th in Florida, they were still loosely in the mix to steal a playoff berth out West. Andre Tourigny was still getting credit for turning around a perennial lottery side, and was priced at around +1200 to win the Jack Adams award with most sportsbooks.
Chances are we have seen the absolute worst of it from Arizona, and the prices will not be right to continue fading them in the near future. They owned 59% of the high danger chances Sunday in Winnipeg, and 65% of the high danger chances versus the Canadiens. The eye-test would tell you that they could have fared better in both of those matchups.
While their level has dropped significantly, their schedule has helped exacerbate the problem. Throughout the 13 game losing streak the Canadiens and Wild are the only two teams they have faced who aren’t in playoff positioning, but the Wild are still 7-2-1 in their last ten games. They have allowed 3.52 xGA/60 during this 13 game skid, and 35.85 shots against per 60.
Leafs fans will have an eye on Matt Dumba, who signed a one year “show-me” deal last offseason, and is expected to be dealt ahead of this deadline. One of the Coyotes greatest flaws has been how badly their top pairing of Dumba and Travis Dermott has been getting caved in though. In 358.9 minutes together Dumba and Dermott own just a 39.3% expected goal rating, which makes them the worst pair in the league among pairings that have played over 200 minutes together this season analytically speaking. Dumba also owns a -2.7 goals above replacement per Evolvinghockey.coms model.
It is currently a reach on Dumba’s priors to say that he could be a useful add for any contender. While their team play defensively has clearly tailed off since a solid start to the season, that flaw has coincided with a stretch of putrid goaltending. Coyotes goaltenders have combined for an .870 save % during this skid, and they would desperately love to see Connor Ingram, find his form now that he is healthy again.
Ingram has been confirmed as the Coyotes starting goaltender for this matchup. He has played to a +7.4 GSAx and .910 save % across 37 appearances this season.
Coyotes top forward Clayton Keller is listed as day-to-day ahead of this matchup. We will likely hear further word upon his status after Coyotes finish morning skate.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs were outclassed Tuesday by the defending champion Knights, who extracted a measure of revenge for the Leafs 7-3 win at T-Mobile on the 22nd. Off nights happen for every team, and some of the reaction to that defeat has been a little overdrawn. The need is for the Leafs to flush that performance right away, and continue displaying the well rounded team game that fans enjoyed over their stretch of winning 1o-of-12.
One factor which could prove notable moving forward is the loss of Timothy Liljegren, who is going to remain out of the lineup tonight. Liljegren had enjoyed by far his best stretch of the season prior to his injury, and the Leafs new look defensive pairs struggled versus Vegas.
The Leafs should be particularly keen to clean up their game defensively given that Joseph Woll is making his return to the lineup. Woll has played to a +7.0 GSAx and .917 save % across 15 games played this season, and is still the most likely candidate to get the start in Game One of the playoffs.
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Best Bets for Coyotes vs Maple Leafs
The Coyotes 13 game losing streak has come against a nightmare schedule, which has made their current level look even worse than it is. They played well in their overtime loss to Winnipeg, and could have easily netted 5-6 versus the Canadiens if they finished more quality looks.
I don’t quite want to buy on the Coyotes here considering how the Leafs have played recently either, and I believe the prices on sides are accurate. Backing the game to go to overtime at +370 would is my favorite price in terms of the games result, but is not my best bet.
My best bet lies with backing Tyler Bertuzzi to record over 2.5 shots on goal at +107. He remained on the top powerplay unit at today’s morning skate, and on the second unit with Nylander and Domi. I don’t believe oddsmakers have fully accounted for his new roles in the lineup, which have coincided with the fact that he has finally found his form after a nightmare start to the season.
Betting him to record over 2.5 shots on goal provides value at anything better than +100.
