The Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs will face off for the second time this season Saturday at Scotiabank Arena. Montreal won the opening night matchup 1-0, as Sam Montembeault posted an NHL season-high 48-save shutout.
Since that game, it’s been a nightmare season for the Canadiens, who enter this matchup in the midst of a five-game losing skid, and hold the league’s worst goal differential of -20.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.
Canadiens vs. Leafs Odds
- Canadiens Moneyline Odds: +180
- Leafs Moneyline Odds: -220
- Puck Line Odds: Canadiens +1.5 (-150), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+125)
- Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -105, under -115)
Montreal Canadiens:
Head coach Martin St. Louis was highly critical of his side after they authored back-to-back multi-goal losses versus the Seattle Kraken and Washington Capitals. Since that point they have been far more competitive, even if it has still resulted in a 0-2-1 record.
This year was supposed to be the season that the Canadiens’ developing young core took significant steps forward, but that has not been the case to this point. They rank last in the NHL with an xGF% of 41.41, and have allowed 32.69 shots against per 60.
The Canadiens’ horrid defensive zone coverage continues to be the main talking point surrounding the team. St. Louis’ contract runs through the end of the 2026-27 season, but it’s becoming a firm possibility that he might not make it to that point if his side doesn’t start to have some answers soon.
One major positive surrounding the Canadiens last season was the play of first overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky down the stretch, who will likely need to become a legitimate superstar for Montreal’s rebuild to be a success. He’s had a respectable start to the season with eight points in 11 matchups, but his play hasn’t popped the way many were expecting.
He’s looked better the last two matchups while playing alongside an underrated two-way player in Jake Evans, as well as Alex Newhook. In 22.2 minutes together they have generated 2.97 xGF/60.
Sam Montembeault is expected to get the start Saturday. He has been a better than average starter once again this season, a fact that continues to be masked by the play of the team in front of him. In 10 appearances, he holds a +0.7 GSAx and .893 save %.
Toronto Maple Leafs:
The Leafs authored another performance that head coach Craig Berube will be proud of Friday, as they limited the Detroit Red Wings to just 20 shots and allowed only four high danger chances against in even strength play. They are now 37-19-2 without Auston Matthews in the lineup since he came into the league.
Over the last 10 games, the Leafs have played to an xGF% of 54.96. They have held opponents to 2.80 xGA/60, and allowed 28.67 shots against per hour of play.
Excluding empty net goals, they have scored zero even strength goals in the last two matchups with Auston Matthews out of the lineup. Suddenly the power play is on fire though, with five tallies in that span.
It would be foolish to believe that the top power play unit is would actually be more effective over a large sample without the best goalscorer in the world in the mix, so it will be interesting to if Berube goes back to the five forward unit we saw briefly before Matthews injury when returns to the lineup.
Toronto will keep the same lineup and line combinations we saw last night versus Detroit, and Joseph Woll will get the start.
Woll has played to a -3.0 GSAx and .892 save percentage in three appearances this season.
Best Bets for Canadiens vs Leafs:
The Canadiens have looked more competitive in their last three matchups, and always seem to play the Leafs tough. They have some additional edges in this matchup, as the Leafs are playing night two of a back-to-back and won’t have Stolarz in goal. I’m not quite there on backing the Canadiens at +180, but just like on Opening Night, this doesn’t look like the right spot to lay it with the Leafs as a huge favorite.
I do see value backing Slafkovsky to record over 2 shots at +105 (BetVictor). He’s poured 26 attempts on goal over the last five games, and has been benefitting from playing alongside Evans in recent matchups. I’m also not convinced the Leafs will be as defensively stout in this spot as oddsmakers are implying, which helps contribute to this number.
The other bet involving the Leafs that looks worthy of touching on today is Stolarz to win the Vezina at +3500. Dating back to the start of last season, Stolarz leads the NHL with a .927 save % (minimum 30 starts), and also ranks first in GSAx per 60. The Leafs have been far better defensively as they acclimate to Berube’s system, and could provide Stolarz strong support the rest of the way.
A number of the usual suspects (Hellebuyck, Shesterkin) are off to excellent starts and will be tough to surpass in this race, but there are a number of goaltenders priced between those two co-favorites and Stolarz that don’t deserve to be. +3500 is a good price that may not exist much longer if Stolarz keeps this up.
Best Bet: Juraj Slafkovsky Over 2 Shots +105, Anthony Stolarz Vezina Trophy Winner +3500 (Sports Interaction)
