After a frustrating loss in their season opener, the Toronto Maple Leafs will look to bounce-back in a tough traveling back-to-back as they take on former coach Sheldon Keefe’s New Jersey Devils side Thursday night.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favorite betting angles bets below.
Maple Leafs vs Devils Odds
- Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: -200
- Devils Moneyline Odds: +165
- Puck Line Odds: Maple Leafs +1.5 (+1250), Devils -1.5 (-150)
- Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -120, under +100)
Toronto Maple Leafs
While it was the first game of Craig Berube’s tenure, the Leafs suffered a familiar feeling loss on Opening Night versus the Canadiens which already had me thinking about last year’s elimination at the hands of Jeremy Swayman and the Bruins.
Toronto owned far more of the play and generated 48 shots on goal, but was unable to best Sam Montembeault and snapped the NHL’s longest streak of games without being shutout.
With Joseph Woll already on the sidelines the Leafs are forced into a tough decision regarding whether or not to offer Anthony Stolarz back-to-back starts right out of the gate. Though he is not confirmed it looks like Stolarz will be the starter, as Dennis Hildeby worked with the extras this morning.
Based on that skate it also looks like Bobby McMann will slide into the lineup for tonight’s matchup, and take the spot of Ryan Reaves.
New Jersey Devils
The Devils were a trendy bet to win the Presidents’ Trophy this season at +1200, and looked the part in their two opening matchups in Prague versus Buffalo. The case as to why they will bounce-back so significantly from last year’s total of 81 points is deep, and I’m expecting something closer to their 2022-23 mark of 112 points.
They suffered through a number of key injuries last season, and received the leagues third lowest save % from a myriad of starters. While there’s a clear case that Sheldon Keefe’s tenure in Toronto deserved to come to an end, it’s also fair to say he is a better NHL coach at this current date than former bench boss Lindy Ruff.
Jacob Markstrom had a Vezina level season playing to a +13.7 GSAx behind a suspect Flames side, and should shore up any goaltending concerns. He was fantastic on opening night in Prague, and has been confirmed as tonight’s starter. Jake Allen should be viewed as slightly better than league average backup, and could help the Devils earn more wins from their backup than other Presidents contenders such as the Rangers, Avalanche, and Oilers.
With Dougie Hamilton back in the mix and free-agent signings of Brett Pesce, Johnathan Kovacevic, the Devils feature one of the deeper defense corps in the league. Seamus Casey also opened eyes with his strong training camp and preseason, and carried that play into the Global Series, where he was fantastic and earned the first star of the game in the second matchup.
Casey’s addition should help cover the losses of Pesce and Luke Hughes, who are both currently on the IL.
The Devils top-six looks downright scary as well. Jack Hughes, Timo Meier, and Jasper Bratt has the offensive upside to be one of the best units in the league. Nico Hischier has Selke level defensive upside, and will center a unit with Tomas Tatar and Dawson Mercer that should fare well head-to-head with elite offensive lines.
Best Bets for Leafs vs. Devils
The prices on sides in this game look fairly accurate to me, and it is worth considering that this the Devils first game back since their trip to Prague. While they have had plenty of time to recoup, across all four North American sports teams have fairly consistently put forth negative ROI’s when returning from cross continent play.
The negative portion of the Leafs crowd is already getting on their superstars for last night’s performance, but it seems fair to point to the positives from that matchup and say on average it would lead to a far better offensive output.
Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and Matthew Knies combined for 17 shots on goal, and both Matthews and Knies hit the crossbar. Knies did a good job of battling in the dirty areas, and Matthews and Marner helped funnel plenty of pucks to those areas. In 10:37 together that trio generated 17 shots on goal to the Habs’ total of seven, and held an 81.8% expected goal share.
At a long number of +370 I see value backing Knies to score a goal in this matchup, which should be a fairly high event affair.
I also still see value backing the Devils to win the Presidents Trophy at a price of +1100.
Best Bets: Matthew Knies Anytime Goal +370 (Sportsinteraction, Play to +350), Devils to Win Presidents Trophy +1100 (SportsInteraction, Play to +950)
