After a no-show Tuesday against the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Toronto Maple Leafs will look to bounce back Thursday as they host coach Craig Berube’s former side in the St. Louis Blues.
The Blues were dealt a tough blow Tuesday as top forward Robert Thomas was injured against the Winnipeg Jets, and are massive underdogs in this matchup despite a solid start.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles bets below.
Blues vs. Maple Leafs Odds
- Blues Moneyline Odds: +195
- Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: -240
- Puck Line Odds: Blues +1.5 (-130), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+110)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over -115, under -105)
St. Louis Blues
Not many teams are well situated to handle the loss of their top-line centre, and that statement may prove particularly true regarding the Blues with Thomas sidelined. They had already converted Pavel Buchnevich to play the middle, and he has not fared well from a defensive perspect thus far. Brayden Schenn was centering the third line, but will bump up the lineup card in this matchup.
Thomas has put up 92 points in 89 games dating back to the start of last season. Since Craig Berube’s dismissal last December he has put up 65 points in 61 games, which ranks 19th in the NHL.
Jordan Kyrou has also thrived under new head coach Drew Bannister, with 57 points in 61 games under his watch. He’s had an excellent start to this season, and will be a player to watch in tonight’s matchup.
While the additions of Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway are both paying dividends in the early going, the Blues have still controlled play at a well below average rate this season. Their defensive core was a clear weakness last season, and still looks flawed in the early going this year.
The Blues hold a 45.94 percent expected goal share, and have allowed 31.68 shots against per 60. Those marks are quite consistent with the Blues 2023-24 results, which makes sense given the roster is not offering that many significant upgrades.
The Blues received the leagues sixth highest save percentage a year ago, and hung around the playoff race largely due to the incredible play of Jordan Binnington. Both Blues starters hold positive GSAx this season, and whether it’s Binnington or Joel Hofer that gets the start tonight the Leafs will be facing a formidable net-minder.
Toronto Maple Leafs:
Tuesday’s matchup in Columbus looked like a potential let-down spot for the Leafs, who earned a reputation of playing down to their competition under Sheldon Keefe. Their shocking performance in that matchup obviously won’t do much to change that distinction, but it is only one game, and off-nights do happen to every team in the league.
The Leafs have fared well in games coming immediately after a loss over the last three seasons, and hold a +5.1 ROI in those spots.
Joseph Woll is the confirmed starter and will make his season debut, while Dennis Hildeby was loaned to the AHL’s Toronto Marlies.
Woll last saw game action in the Leafs preseason finale on October 5th. He was excellent when healthy in 2023-24, with a +7.2 GSAx and .907 save % in 25 appearances.
Max Pacioretty was absent from the morning skate after exiting Tuesday’s game with a lower body injury. Pacioretty was listed as day-to-day by Berube on Thursday morning.
Best Bets for Blues vs Maple Leafs:
The Leafs should be well motivated to respond in this matchup after displaying a sub-par compete level Tuesday night. On top of that, they should have a little extra juice as they try to earn Berube the win over his former side. At the opening numbers, I did see value backing the Leafs to win, but at the current prices would opt to pass on backing a side.
There are two shooters I’m interested in backing in this matchup. Like the Leafs, William Nylander has done well to respond to his worst games in recent years, and this matchup presents a great opportunity for him and the second line. The Blues defensive core offers a lot of space in transition, which is something Nylander should expose, and he should get plenty of minutes in favourable matchups this game.
At +130 I also value backing Schenn to record over 2.5 shots on goal. He has moved up the lineup card at even strength, and should get more powerplay minutes in Thomas absence as well. He ranks first on the Blues with 10.09 shots on goal per 60, and has gone over 2.5 in four of seven games this season.
Best Bet: William Nylander Over 3.5 Shots on Goal -118 (SportsInteraction, Play to -125), Brayden Schenn Over 2.5 Shots on Goal +130 (SportsInteraction, Play to +125)
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