After failing to secure a full-time role in extended auditions in each of the past three seasons, Philip Broberg is finally projected as a full-time NHLer this coming season. The Swedish left-handed defenceman is expected to slot in on his off-hand beside Darnell Nurse on the second pair.
Heading into his age-23 season, and with only 81 NHL games on his resume, it’s fair to ask if the 2019 8th overall pick can still live up to his draft pedigree. Today, we’re going to look at a few comparable players to see if Broberg might be able to make the leap this year.
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Most top-10 draft picks who haven’t played a full NHL season by age 23 would be best described as busts. From his own draft class, he’s outplayed only Alex Turcotte (5th overall, 32 NHL games) among top-10 picks. Other defensemen picked around the same spot in past drafts include Quinn Hughes, Mikhail Sergachev, Zach Werenski, and Ivan Provorov. All of those players had multiple seasons as full-time players under their belt by age 23. Even the disappointing Adam Boqvist, who went 8th overall in 2018, has played in 209 games over five NHL seasons.
One encouraging comp is Broberg’s teammate, Evan Bouchard. Picked 10th overall in 2018, Bouchard’s first full NHL season came at age 22, four years after being drafted. After putting up 43 and 40 points at age 22 and 23, he had a huge playoff run in his second season before exploding into stardom this past season. That was his 6th season after being drafted, same as Broberg is entering, though Bouchard was 24 for most of that season.
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Noah Dobson, selected two picks after Bouchard in 2018, has had a similar career arc. He’s also more comparable to Broberg physically and stylistically, both standing a lanky 6’4″ and playing a smooth-skating, puck moving style.
Another defenceman with high draft pedigree that took a while to get started is a personal favourite, Ryan Ellis. The 11th overall pick in 2009, Ellis split time between the AHL and NHL at ages 21 and 22. At age 23, he finally became a full-time member of Nashville’s vaunted blueline. He spent much of the next decade as one of the most underrated defensemen in the league before a complicated pelvic injury ended his career at age 31.
Ryan Ellis, acquired by PHI, is a top-end puck-moving two-way defenceman. His numbers before this season were elite, and it was a bit of a down-year for him. But he’s got a hell of a track record. #anytimeanywhere pic.twitter.com/JYr4pri5LY
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) July 17, 2021
Even more encouraging is another former Nashville Predator, Broberg’s teammate and countryman Mattias Ekholm. A 4th round pick in 2009, Ekholm entered his age 23 season having played only three NHL games, and had just finished a solid AHL campaign (32 points in 59 games).
He played 62 games that season, then 82 at age 24, on his way to becoming one of the most dependable two-way defenders in the NHL. As a fellow 6’4″, puck moving Swede, Broberg can look to Ekholm not only for encouragement, but inspiration and advice.
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One final comparable player is yet another Oiler, and yet another Swede. The recently retired Oscar Klefbom, drafted 19th overall in 2011, had played in 107 games by age 23. That season, he played all 82, and quarterbacked the Oilers powerplay to the tune of 12 goals and 38 points. Before injury issues forced an early end to his career, Klefbom was the Oilers’ best defenceman and his absence caused many problems for the team down the road. Although Broberg’s NHL numbers at this point in his career don’t measure up to Klefbom’s, his career is evidence that there might still be something in there.
It’s worth mentioning that Broberg has consistently performed well in Bakersfield. He put up solid production with 38 points in 49 games last season. Broberg also acquitted himself well during the Oilers’ playoff run beside Darnell Nurse. Apart from some good on-ice numbers and noticeably valuable skating, he also contributed two goals in his 10 playoff games.
While the young Swede is still in need of a contract and has a long road ahead, it’s not unprecedented for a player in his situation to emerge as a full-time contributor. As we’ve seen, he doesn’t need to look past his own team or country for proof. With the team up against the cap and a gaping hole on the right side of the defence, a Philip Broberg breakout would do wonders for the Oilers this season.
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