Oilers, Wild surging after midseason coaching changes: Examining the impact of Kris Knoblauch, John Hynes

The Edmonton Oilers and Minnesota Wild were the first two NHL teams to fire their head coaches, and they have both been playing extremely well since making those changes. Is that just a result of the “coaching change bump” or has something more substantial changed for the Oilers and Wild?

The Oilers entered the 2023-24 season as Stanley Cup favorites, but they won just three out of their first 12 games while posting a minus-19 goal differential. That was enough to get Jay Woodcroft fired, and he was replaced by Kris Knoblauch, who coached Connor McDavid when he was a member of the OHL’s Eerie Otters.

Although the Wild’s expectations weren’t quite as high as the Oilers, they looked like the favorite to lock up third place and the final guaranteed playoff spot in the Central Division. However, the normally stingy Wild couldn’t keep opposing teams out of their net, and Dean Evason was fired following a 5-10-4 record to start the season. Minnesota replaced him with John Hynes, who already had two previous NHL stops with the New Jersey Devils and Nashville Predators.

Since shaking things up behind the bench, Edmonton and Minnesota have combined to go 22-9-0, and both teams have worked their way back into the playoff race. Let’s take a lot at what exactly has gone right for them with Knoblauch and Hynes in charge.

Edmonton Oilers

Woodcroft won 14 playoff games in his first two seasons with the Oilers, but any goodwill that earned him was used up by the end of October. Edmonton struggled to score at an elite clip, as is usually the case, and it couldn’t buy a save.

At the time Woodcroft was fired, the Oilers were at or near the bottom of the NHL in shooting percentage and save percentage. Considering some of Edmonton’s five-on-five metrics were quite strong, there is some evidence to suggest Woodcroft got something of a raw deal.

Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

Despite the abhorrent results, the Oilers were generating dangerous scoring chances and expected goals at a high clip. Their offense was doing everything except getting the puck over the goal line, which is a pretty important part of scoring goals. Still, Edmonton was 13 goals below expectation, and that was never going to last given the amount of firepower on the roster.

Since Knoblauch took over for Woodcroft, two key things have happened. First, that miserably low shooting percentage has regressed to the mean. Not much has changed in terms of the Oilers’ ability to create scoring chances at a high rate, but the puck is going in the net. Perhaps the biggest reason for that is the improved health of Connor McDavid.

While the Oilers were reeling, McDavid missed some time due to injury, and he still didn’t look 100% immediately upon his return. That caused McDavid to sag. When Woodcroft was still in charge, McDavid had just two goals and 10 points in 11 games. That’s fine for most players — and a one-legged McDavid is still probably a top-20 player — but something was clearly off with him.

McDavid has gotten back to full health recently, and he has entered destroyer mode. In his 18 games under Knoblauch, McDavid has 10 goals and 24 assists. That improvement alone gives the Oilers a better chance to win on a nightly basis.

The second thing that has improved with Knoblauch as the head coach is the goaltending. When the Oilers fired Woodcroft, Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell had combined to allow 13.83 goals above average, per Natural Stat Trick. There aren’t many teams that could survive a run of goaltending that poor.

Now, Campbell is in the AHL, and Skinner has been something closer to average, and it’s not like Edmonton has gotten leaps and bounds better on defense. In his last 14 appearances, Skinner has allowed just 0.72 goals above average. That’s certainly not great, but it’s really all this Oilers team needs in goal when it’s lighting up the scoreboard.

I don’t mean to suggest that Knoblauch’s success is simply a result of regression. He has clearly had a positive impact on the locker room, and he has spoken about wanting the players to play instead of thinking about every move they make on the ice. That probably benefits a player as talented as McDavid, and it likely takes some pressure off a roster that has felt the weight of high expectations on its shoulders.

The point is that the Oilers really weren’t playing terrible hockey when Woodcroft was in charge. He was just the victim of some awful puck luck, but a Stanley Cup contender can only focus on the process while ignoring the results for so long before it has to make a change. Woodcroft wasn’t getting the results. Knoblauch is.

Now the Oilers need to avoid hitting any more speed bumps as they dig out of this hole because they don’t have much margin for error.

Minnesota Wild

Evason entered the season on shaky ground after four consecutive first-round playoff exits, and it didn’t take long for his seat to reach a boiling point. Minnesota’s calling card under Evason was strong defense, but the team was giving up crooked numbers left and right throughout the first six weeks of the season.

Unlike the Oilers, there were some clear red flags when taking a deeper look at the Wild’s slow start. The offense was legitimately bad, and the defense wasn’t quite good enough to make up for that. Terrible goaltending from Filip Gustvasson and Marc-Andre Fleury only made matters worse.

Since Hynes got the job, Minnesota hasn’t been a terrific offensive team at five-on-five, but its defensive game has kicked into high gear. The Wild have arguably been the NHL’s best defensive team under Hynes.

Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

Hynes has developed a reputation for being more of a defensive coach, and that is exactly what he has brought to Minnesota. In their last 13 games, the Wild haven’t given an inch in the defensive zone, and they have racked up wins as a result.

Part of this defensive success is probably due to the return of Jared Spurgeon, who has finally gotten healthy after winning 19 games. Spurgeon is an elite defender, and he has been exceptional in the small sample of the Hynes era. In roughly 115 minutes with Spurgeon on the ice at five-on-five, the Wild own 59.8% of the expected goals and a plus-7 goal differential.

With the rest of the team locking things down in front of them, Gustvasson and Fleury have found their respective grooves again. That duo has been the best in the league since Nov. 27, saving a combined 10.5 goals above average. They haven’t been tested much, but when they’ve been asked to make a big save, Gustavsson and Fleury have gotten the job done.

As good as the Wild have been on defense, it is fair to point out that there are still some questions on offense. Minnesota is still in the middle of the pack in terms of actual goal scoring, and it’s below average when it comes to generating expected goals at five-on-five. Mats Zuccarello hitting IR doesn’t help matters, and the lack of consistent scoring could prove to be an Achilles heel for this team down the road.

For now, the Wild are playing well enough on defense that they don’t need much offense to keep piling up points, and Hynes deserves credit for getting this group to hit another gear in that department.

Evason obviously felt the wrath of poor goaltending, and that is a major reason why he is no longer behind the bench in Minnesota. Still, things seemed to have gotten somewhat stale under Evason, and the Wild do look rejuvenated with Hynes as the new head coach as they charge up the standings in the West.