We’re a few days removed from exploring what a Mitch Marner contract would look like and I’m going to say the same rules apply. This isn’t about whether or not signing John Tavares is a good idea. The fact is that whether it is a good or bad idea to sign him will be heavily reliant on what it would cost to do so. This is strictly about exploring what it would cost the Leafs to take a soon to be 34-year-old (35 at the start of his next contract) John Tavares into retirement as a Leaf.
The first thing is that John Tavares narrowly avoids the 35+ contract restrictions in the NHL CBA. According to CapFriendly: “A contract is designated a 35+ contract if the players age on the first year of the contract is 35 or older (as of June 30 prior to the year of the effective contract).” That September birthday is doing a lot of heavy lifting when it comes to Tavares’ next deal which can allow for extra years as well as frontloading tomfoolery. Make no mistake, there should be tomfoolery and a ridiculous eight-year contract should be part of the plan.
Before getting into the tomfoolery aspect, it is worth considering what is out there for comparables for John Tavares. Right now, we’ll assume that it is still about centre comparables but acknowledge the wing is potentially where he ends up as he’ll accomplish more in a 2LW role than a 3C one.
The fact that Steven Stamkos didn’t sign with the Lightning and hit the open market robbed the Leafs of a potentially favourable negotiating point. The speculation from Pierre LeBrun was that Stamkos was offered $3M from the Lightning while Steven was seeking something in the $4M-5M range, all these numbers being stretched over 8 years. With John Tavares not being at Stamkos levels, that would have been a great number to reference but his $8M AAV over 4 seasons with the Predators is decidedly less so.
The players in similar situations to Tavares that are worth taking a look at are probably Evgeny Malkin, Anze Kopitar, and Ryan O’Reilly. The main theme here is that all three of them are on 4 years or less deals. Kopitar signed a two year deal at $7M AAV and rather than taking a haircut and anticipating a drop off, he’s being paid like the player he is today. That’s certainly one approach.
The Malkin contract had the bonus of Sidney Crosby applying pressure. It seemed that Malkin was headed for a Stamkos situation and instead found himself on a four year deal with a $6.1M AAV. In addition to the Crosby influence, Malkin hasn’t shown signs of needing to move from his 2C role. Tavares has a few more question marks in that regard.
Ryan O’Reilly’s situation is different as he went elsewhere to sign at $4.5M AAV and it is looking like a steal. Like Kopitar, his two-way game adds some additional value but also like Kopitar, he had more points than John Tavares last season. If there is a contract to look to set the bar for a John Tavares deal, it’s likely O’Reilly’s.
When you start looking at older wingers or part time centres as comparisons the results become even more favourable for John Tavares’ next deal. Claude Giroux, Mats Zuccarello, Jonathan Marchessault, and Matt Duchene all put up numbers similar to John Tavares and are around the same age. Marchessault just switched teams and landed a $5.5M AAV, and Giroux is on his way to becoming an unrestricted free agent next summer as well after earning $6.5M AAV. Duchene and Zuccarello are $3M AAV and $4.125M AAV respectively and reasons to believe that John Tavares’ price point next season will be a source of joy after being a point of contention for at least the last three seasons.
Using Evolving Hockey’s contract projections, John Tavares is predicted to sign a 3 year deal at $7.14M AAV based on the current salary cap structure. I’m not sure how much an increase in the salary cap will influence John Tavares but at a $93M salary cap, John Tavares’ deal would be at $7.5M. This contract would take John Tavares up to the age of 38 and as mentioned above, it is somewhat in line with the Kopitar and Malkin deals. I’m still not sure Toronto does this.
That brings us to what we know from the Chris Tanev situation and we can assume that a couple of extra years could be added with the acknowledgement the player will struggle to live up to that deal. Instead of $21M over three years, the deal might look like $24M over 5 years, bringing Tavares’ cap hit down to a much happier $4.8M cap hit. That seems like a number that finds the sweet spot of acceptance and outrage amongst Leafs fans, but since it isn’t in Spezza/Giordano territory it will still leave everyone wanting.
Now the question that needs to be considered is what is the walkaway price on Tavares? Despite the contract projections being in the $7M+ range, I’d put that number much lower. The Leafs can find a 60 point forward for less than $7M. They can probably find a decent one for around $5.5M and that needs to be high water mark. If Tavares wants to stay, he’ll need to take a haircut, possibly one that ends up even better for the Leafs than a $4.8M AAV.
It’s also worth noting that the agent who signed the Kopitar, Giroux, Duchene, and Marchessault contracts is Pat Brisson, John Tavares’ agent. He’ll also add Sidney Crosby’s new contract to the mix which will likely serve as the high watermark for older centres. Brisson also has the Tarasenko and Patrick Kane contracts to his credit, which again fits the narrative that John Tavares should be under $5M AAV on his next deal. All of this seems to point to the reasonable conclusion that John Tavares will be back with the Maple Leafs.
Data from Capfriendly, PuckPedia and Evolving Hockey
