The Leafs will look to bounce back from a humiliating loss last night against the Senators, a game which was less competitive than the 3-0 final suggested.
The Capitals have displayed an excellent process in earning a 10-4-0 record, and catch the Leafs in a favorable spot here with Joseph Woll starting and Auston Matthews remaining on the sidelines. As a result, Toronto is the biggest betting underdog it has been this season at +120.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.
Maple Leafs vs Capitals Odds
- Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: +120
- Capitals Moneyline Odds: -140
- Puck Line Odds: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-220), Capitals -1.5 (+180)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over -120, under +100)
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs were thoroughly outplayed by the Senators last night, and if not for another strong performance from Anthony Stolarz the game likely would’ve been a blowout. Ottawa outshot Toronto 41-27, and out chanced the Leafs 24-12 at even strength despite playing essentially the entire game with a lead.
Every NHL team has letdown games throughout the 82 game grind of the regular season, and obviously the Leafs weren’t at their best last night. It’s also likely that their dominant three game winning streak without Matthews was aided by the quality of opponents, as each of Montreal, Detroit and Boston has not looked good of late.
In the time since Matthews went down the Leafs have not scored a goal at even strength. Eventually the process of relying on a scorching hot powerplay to win games wasn’t going to work, and that was the case last night.
There are still plenty of pieces left in the Leafs lineup to do damage without Matthews and Pacioretty, but a lack of depth scoring is becoming a clear flaw once again this season. 17 games into the season and Nick Robertson, Pontus Holmberg, Ryan Reaves, David Kampf and Bobby McMann have combined for just ten points.
Over the last five games the Leafs have generated just 2.09 xGF/60 at even strength. They are allowing even less against (1.79 xGA/60), but a lack of quality scoring threats playing down the lineup is becoming a significant concern.
Joseph Woll is expected to get the start in this matchup after resting last night against Ottawa. He has the potential to be one of the league’s better secondary options if he can stay healthy, and has been effective thus far with a .905 save % and 2.27 GAA in four appearances this season.
Washington Capitals
The Capitals snuck into the playoffs last season with a record-breaking -37 goal differential. They won a ton of close defensive battles largely due to incredible play from Charlie Lindgren, and the idea that they never really deserved to be in the playoffs likely robbed Spencer Carbery of a Jack Adams nomination.
They fought through a ton of injuries in the back half of the 2023-24 season, and played a number of months with upwards of five Hershey Bears in the lineup.
Carbery’s focus entering this season was making the Capitals into a far more dangerous side offensively, as his side ranked 28th with 2.63 goals for per game last season. He’s now working with a roster holding significantly more proven NHL talents, as well as a number of talented young skaters trending towards their primes, which has helped to achieve that goal thus far.
Outside of Matt Roy, essentially every offseason acquisition was somewhat of a reclamation project. To this point all of the Caps’ notable acquisitions have thrived under Carbery, as Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jacob Chychrun and Andrew Mangiapane have been highly effective.
The Capitals defence corps was projected to be the their greatest strength entering the year, but suddenly the teams offensive depth looks like it could be a legitimate strength all season.
Connor McMichael and Aliaksei Protas have both been tremendous and have more than earned full time roles in the top six. Dylan Strome has played like a true number one center, and has aided Alex Ovechkin’s surprising resurgence at age 39.
The Capitals rank second in the NHL with a 57.79% expected goal share this season. They rank first in the NHL with a 4.22 xGF/60, and have scored 4.21 goals per game where it counts. Their +19 goal differential ranks third in the league.
In time we could see some of the Caps’ key skaters play level off to some extent, but they have gotten important contributions from up and down the lineup and that is being reflected with their strong underlying results.
Logan Thompson is confirmed as the Capitals starter in this matchup. He holds a .910 save % and 2.55 GAA in seven starts this season, and is making a strong case to be included on Team Canada’s 4 Nations Cup roster.
Best Bets for Leafs vs. Capitals
Aside from their struggling powerplay, the Capitals have been legitimately good in all facets of the game this season. They are getting plenty of contributions from up and down the lineup, and Logan Thompson has played quite well behind a strong defensive side. They should make life tough for a Leafs side that has struggled to produce at even strength in four matchups without Matthews.
The Leafs completely no-showed yesterday’s matchup, and will surely bring a better effort to tonight’s game. They have been a good bet off losses the last several seasons, and were playing quite well prior to last night’s performance.
Those thoughts scare me a little as someone who backed the Caps heavily at yesterday’s opening prices. Still, the Caps have legitimately looked like one of the better teams in the league and are featuring a very well rounded roster right now.
Even at the current price of -140, I still see enough value for a smaller bet on the Caps to win this matchup.
Best Bets: Washington Capitals Moneyline -140 Sports Interaction
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