The Leafs will try to keep Kirill Kaprizov and the Wild in check on Sunday at the Xcel Energy Center. Kaprizov enters this matchup amid a franchise-record seven-game multi-point streak and is tied for the league lead with 21 points. The Wild hold a record of 7-1-2 and have not lost in regulation on home ice this season.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.
Maple Leafs vs Wild Odds
- Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: -105
- Wild Moneyline Odds: -115
- Puck Line Odds: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-260), Wild -1.5 (+210)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over -115, under +100)
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs failed to find a way last night in St. Louis in a game coach Craig Berube surely would have loved to win, but their overall process was solid, and there are some positives to point toward entering this matchup.
Toronto was the far better team in the first period and, on another night, could have easily entered the second up more than one. The Leafs were not great in the second period, but it likely felt a little worse than it was after an unlucky bounce led to a critical goal for Jordan Kyrou.
The Leafs outshot the Blues 37-24 and created 11 high-danger chances to the Blues’ six.
The most obvious flaw to point to from that matchup was once again the Leafs’ powerplay, which failed to break through once again in a game where one powerplay goal could have been the difference. With a success rate of just 7.9%, the Leafs’ powerplay has been the worst in the league this season.
The Leafs newly formed second trio of John Tavares, William Nylander and Max Pacioretty carried the majority of the play once again. They held an 88.9% expected goal share and generated some high-quality chances, including a Tavares post in the first period.
The Leafs are 1-1 in the second game of back-to-backs so far this year and went 7-6 in back-to-backs last season with a +11 goal differential.
Anthony Stolarz is expected to get the start in goal. He has played to a +2.8 GSAx and .916 save % this season and led the league with a .925 save % in 2023-24 (minimum 25 games played).
Minnesota Wild
The Wild looked like a good bounce-back candidate entering this season because they suffered through one of the league’s worst injury situations a year ago and got worse-than-expected play from names such as Filip Gustavsson and Matt Boldy.
With Captain Jared Spurgeon back in the mix, they feature a deep and mobile defence core that can move the puck well in transition. Several of their top forwards are excellent defensively, such as Joel Eriksson Ek and Boldy. They have allowed just 2.39 xGA/60 this season, which is the best mark in the NHL.
Based on Kaprizov’s incredible finish to last season, he looked to have Hart Trophy upside entering this season at +2200, which was something I wrote up in the summer. In 65 games since coach Dean Evason’s dismissal, Kaprizov has put up 47 goals and 99 points.
While Kaprizov is the Wild’s best forward, he likely has a slightly better-supporting cast than is credited. Marco Rossi has emerged as a legitimate top-line center. While Kaprizov is the straw that stirs the drink on the Wild’s powerplay unit, which has succeeded 24.2% this season, there are other high-quality powerplay players such as Boldy, Eriksson Ek, and Brock Faber helping power that success.
Gustavsson has been confirmed as the Wild’s starter in this matchup. He has played to a +2.8 GSAx and owns a .919 save % in seven appearances this season.
Best Bets for Leafs vs. Wild
This spot reminds me a lot of the Leafs game versus Winnipeg on Monday. The Wild hold the better record and have been the superior team thus far, but based on roster strength, the Leafs will likely still prove to be the superior side this season. Relative to expectations, I was fairly high on the Wild this season, but I’m still not convinced they will be this dominant over a larger sample.
Toronto was a great bet in road games last year and also played the second leg of back-to-back situations quite well. It’s been somewhat of an uneven start to the season, but we have seen middling results in October in essentially every season of the “core four” era.
If the powerplay eventually stabilizes as I expect it to, they still look likely to be an elite regular-season team once again. Especially if Stolarz continues to play at this kind of a level, and it has now become a fairly large sample in which he has offered elite results.
At -105, I see value in backing the Leafs to win this tough road game.
Best Bets: Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline to -110 (-105 Sports Interaction)
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