When the Maple Leafs announced they had signed Oliver Ekman-Larsson to a four-year contract this offseason, the reaction from fans was mixed. On one hand, this was a guy who had been regressing for several years to the point that he was bought out by the Canucks halfway through an eight-year contract. On the other, he was able to return to form on the Panthers and helped them capture their first Stanley Cup back in the spring.
Regardless of which side of the coin you land on, it is clear that Ekman-Larsson will help bring some value on the backend in terms of his puck-moving abilities and offensive instincts. Sure he isn’t of a similar ilk to what some fans were hoping the team would sign instead in Brett Pesce and Matt Roy, but OEL should be able to make a positive impact if utilized correctly. This is a guy who has a lot of faith in himself and even went with his gut in choosing to sign with the Leafs, so he is not afraid to take a risk. And while he is on the wrong side of 30 at the time of filing, that doesn’t mean his game can’t age gracefully and work in harmony with what Toronto is trying to do.
Ekman-Larsson is not a top-pairing defenceman at this stage of his career and there are deficiencies in his game that may make fans feel uneasy. He is not a defensive stalwart by any means and he won’t have the best time if he were to be matched up against the top offensive players as a result. However, OEL can be effective on the third pairing while getting some power-play time when needed. To boot, he can fill in on the second pair in a pinch and can be slotted in at both ends of the ice if necessary.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson makes no mistake on the 2-on-1 and buries the @Energizer OT winner for the @FlaPanthers! 😼 pic.twitter.com/n6hEuXSxm0
— NHL (@NHL) January 28, 2024
The Expectation — Continue to build off his resurgence from last year
For the Leafs to get the most out of Ekman-Larsson, they need to recognize that he needs to be limited in his usage beyond the intended role. He will be a huge boost to the backend in terms of his puck-moving abilities and willingness to jump in to join the attack, which is an element that has been a common trend in the preseason since Craig Berube took over. His knack for quarterbacking a power play and eagerness to play physically when needed will be useful as well as was evident during Florida’s Cup run.
That has all of the makings of being a serviceable fourth/fifth defenceman, which means he has to be utilized correctly if the Leafs hope to get a lot of value out of him. This means ensuring the vast majority of his shifts begin in the offensive zone, limiting his time on the penalty kill, pairing him with a defensive defenceman, and keeping his ATOI down to around 17 or 18 a night. Anything beyond that would be asking too much of Ekman-Larsson and it would see him struggle mightily while being a detriment to the team’s success.
This is reflected in his underlying numbers at 5v5 from the past two seasons, where the disparity of how to and how not to utilize OEL is apparent:
|
OLIVER EKMAN-LARSSON
|
CF%
|
FF%
|
SF%
|
GF%
|
xGF%
|
SCF%
|
HDCF%
|
HDGF%
|
PDO
|
|
2022-23 (CANUCKS)
|
47.39
|
47.01
|
46.49
|
38.54
|
45.36
|
46.86
|
46.32
|
44.00
|
0.967
|
|
2023-24 (PANTHERS)
|
56.14
|
54.03
|
55.64
|
55.06
|
54.33
|
55.30
|
51.62
|
50.00
|
0.998
|
In his last season in Vancouver, he was forced to play over 20 minutes a game and started more than half of his shifts in the defensive zone which led to putrid numbers across the board. By contrast, Florida used him in way more offensive zone starts and while it saw his average ice time drop it saw much better results in every advanced metric. This wasn’t a case where he was riding an extremely high PDO because his from the previous campaign is right around average.
This disparity is more apparent when you look at the advanced metrics in the playoffs. Ekman-Larsson was used even less at around 15 minutes a night, yet saw the aforementioned numbers climb up even higher because Flordia did a great job of protecting him with the amount of depth they had and putting him in positions where his skillset could best be used. It helped a lot in growing his confidence that by the time he was tasked with taking over power-play duties after Brendan Montour got hurt, he jumped in and played admirably. All of which is to say that the Leafs have to make sure they avoid the failures of the Canucks and follow the model from the Panthers if they hope to find success with OEL.
The Goal – Be effective in a sheltered role
Ekman-Larsson can attest that a big factor in why he was able to find his form in Florida was that he worked on upping his tempo to keep up with the increasing pace of the NHL. This way it can ensure he can extend his career as long as possible since he jokingly hoped to want to play until they have to carry him off the ice.
“I feel a lot better than what I did when I was 25, to be honest with you, body-wise,” he said to reporters back in July. “I feel like I’ve been putting in a lot of work the last couple years to get better. That’s what it comes down to, that’s how I feel, and that’s what I’m gonna keep doing to get better. I want to play for a long time, so I feel like I can do that.”
That certainly helped in him having a bounceback campaign and earning a Stanley Cup ring, which in turn led to the aforementioned four-year contract he signed in Toronto over the summer. Being a strong skater has always been one of his biggest strengths and maintaining that will do wonders in ensuring he can remain a fixture in the league for many more years to come. But so too will be accepting that he will need to be mostly a third-pairing guy primarily used on the power play because that is where he can best implement his strengths and not be a detriment to the team defensively.
What will help OEL is the fact that he learned from the experience of getting bought out and used it as motivation to better himself and ensure that it was merely a blip on the radar and not a sign that his best days were behind him. Spending a few seasons in a Canadian market is certainly beneficial in entering arguably the most scrutinized one in the league so he knows how to block out the noise and focus on his game. If anything, he is looking forward to playing in front of the Leafs faithful on a nightly basis.
“Playing for other teams, I loved coming into Toronto,” Ekman-Larsson said on July 1st. “Just a passionate fan base, who cares a lot about the team so I’m super excited about that. Heard a lot of good things from players that play there. That’s what you want. That’s why you play.”
He shouldn’t be used in more defensive situations and probably shouldn’t be on the penalty kill all the time, but if the Leafs recognize how to best implement his strengths while not putting him in a position to fail then he will be able to continue being the effective defender in a sheltered role. Should that be the case, the fans who were on the fence about his appointment will warm up to the signing overtime.
