It has been the better part of my adult life that I’ve carried some form of opinion on the Maple Leafs salary cap situation. They were either foolish or wise in their management of it. They were either prematurely tying their hands or they weren’t using the money quickly enough. The core four years and the overlapping COVID-19 pandemic ramped up the salary cap realities for the Maple Leafs and now in less than 12 months the Leafs will no longer have John Tavares’ $11M cap hit and they will be living in an environment where they have over $90M to spend on their roster. The questions need to be asked, how well situated are the Maple Leafs for next summer and how much longer will the salary cap even factor into what GMs can and can’t do when it comes to roster construction?
What is the Leafs salary cap picture for next summer?
In a flat cap world, the Leafs would already have $26.3M of cap space to work with. That’s not a bad starting point at all. Given that the cap jumped $4.5M this summer from last, similar growth would see the NHL salary cap in the $92M-$93M range next summer, giving the Leafs $30M to work with. That’s four Morgan Riellys.
The Leafs will have 24 players under contract heading into next season and of those 24, 14 of them are on the Maple Leafs roster this season and presumably will be for the next, although I want to mention that Jarnkrok, Reaves, and Kampf are part of that group, as well as both goaltenders and it’s not unrealistic to anticipate some change coming in that regard if the tandem doesn’t pan out perfectly.
The biggest name for the Maple Leafs to be concerned with is Mitch Marner and you probably already know that. It’s no secret that he’ll want to cut as deeply into Toronto’s cap space as possible.
On the flip side of that is John Tavares who won’t be looking for as big a piece of the pie and the Leafs could very well offer him even less than what he thinks is fair.
Jake McCabe and Matthew Knies round out the key contracts to think about. Pontus Holmberg, Connor Dewar, and Topi Niemela are notable players but not likely to interfere with Toronto’s cap situation that will also be dealt with. The Leafs could comfortably run back this entire group, still have money to add one significant upgrade through trade or free agency or the Leafs could make a few smaller upgrades to round out their roster. All of this comes with the caveat of teams not making radical overpayments now that there is more money to do so.
It may also be worth noting that next season will be the last one played before the collective bargaining agreement expires. Politics might come into play and the growth in the salary cap may be stunted or accelerated based on who is trying to establish control heading into what either be one of the main storylines of the 2025-26 season or the reason to panic because of the lack of negotiations during the summer of 2026.
Does the salary cap even matter anymore?
The short answer is yes. The longer answer starts with not nearly as much as it used to. That’s not to say that William Nylander’s contract won’t look regrettable as he approaches his mid-30s or that the Leafs shouldn’t trade David Kampf or that Ryan Reaves is now an everyday player. There is still a need to be smart with the money, it’s just that there is some greater forgiveness for mistakes, and there will presumably be small bubble before role player contracts start catching up to star players. It’s entirely possible the next CBA completely closes the gap and Brandon Pridham goes back to sending waivers exempt players down to the Marlies on non-game days to pinch pennies for the trade deadline.
What seems to have eroded is the need to ditch good players because their contracts are coming up. Teams, including the Leafs can keep their talent. While potentially a good thing it is a double-edged sword as the quality of free agents will continue to drop off and in a league that is reluctant to make trades, that means relying on draft picks and prospect pools to improve your roster. That is an area where the Leafs are sunk. It seems like a nice little moment in time where the Leafs don’t need to worry about their spending but will be confronted with the realization there is no one to spend their money on. Maybe creativity will finally be in the cards.
The salary cap might not matter as much now but once again the Maple Leafs might not be properly prepared for the NHL to change, lacking the future assets to trade or draft top tier talent.
As for 2025-26, it pretty much goes without saying that cap situation isn’t so much a concern as the Mitch Marner situation. He is the cap situation. And taking everyone at their word means that there won’t be certainty about the Leafs roster or cap until likely close to July 1st, 2025.
Data from PuckPedia
