How to optimize the Maple Leafs’ bottom-six forward group

Tuesday night, Pontus Holmberg and Connor Dewar came together on a Maple Leafs goal. It was Connor Dewar’s first point of the season in 12 games, and Pontus Holmberg’s second goal of the season through 26 games. Neither of the players are players you think of carrying the offensive torch for the Leafs in the bottom six but still are part of the Leafs’ issue of not getting offence outside the top two lines.

The Leafs offensive production can be summarized in three tiers:

The clear producers: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Matthew Knies.

The healthy middle of the pack: Max Pacioretty, Fraser Minten, and Bobby McMann.

The problem:

Additionally:

• Max Domi has gone 14 games without a point
• Steven Lorentz has gone 15 games without a goal

While players like Lorentz, Dewar, Kampf, Reaves, and even Holmberg and Minten aren’t necessarily in the lineup to produce offence, the Leafs going with a set that is entirely based on the top six scoring or picking up goals on the powerplay isn’t the most sustainable way to play hockey and that’s how you end up with 16 shot nights against the New Jersey Devils.

There certainly is an injury element that has hindered this success. The return of Max Pacioretty helps inject some offence back into the lineup and theoretically Max Domi’s cold streak will have an end date, one that can be sped up by playing him on the wing. The return of Bobby McMann gives the Leafs a pretty respectable top nine to work with and players like Holmberg, Lorentz, and Dewar could form a fairly solid fourth line that isn’t necessarily going to produce offence but gives the team some defensive/checking forwards to deploy as needed.

All of that seems pretty decent down the road, but it certainly doesn’t account for the universal truth that injuries will still happen, and in practice the Leafs played against the Devils with Bobby McMann being the most significant offensive player out of the lineup and they still managed to struggle to produce chances or goals. Further optimization needs to be considered.

For now, let’s exclude the trade option. It’s fun to speculate on what the return of Nazem Kadri or Ryan O’Reilly could do for the Leafs (as an example), but with a looming roster freeze and the league being historically quiet in December (ignoring the Blackwood/Georgiev trade) due to not wanting relocate players over the holidays, the solution needs to come from inside the Leafs organization first.

Right now here are the Leafs worst offenders at 5v5:

Lowest individual expected goals per 60:

For players like Alex Nylander and Nick Robertson, who are expected to be part of the offensive solution in the bottom six, these numbers are pretty damning. Some of this about who players get to play with, but immediately they stand out as not having much to offer as part of the solution while Connor Dewar and Steven Lorentz continue to look like strong candidates to stay in.

Lowest On-Ice Expected Goals For per 60:

Looking at the on-ice numbers the Leafs overall 5v5 issue seeps into the conversation a bit more. The return of Auston Matthews and Max Pacioretty looks like it will help, but they also could see their numbers skew lower as the amount of time they play under Craig Berube’s tighter low event system has an impact. Reasonably they too will mirror the Nylander, Marner, and Knies range.

It also shows that while Fraser Minten has looked good offensively (he’s gone quiet for a few games now too), he does need offensive support, and while playing him with Max Domi appears to be a decent idea, a more capable offensive outlet than Steven Lorentz would likely be required for the unit to achieve success.

If there are any key takeaways from the data, it’s probably that David Kampf, Ryan Reaves, Nick Robertson, and Alex Nylander are the least helpful part of the Leafs roster right now, and as soon as Bobby McMann returns a decision on one of Reaves, Robertson, or Nylander should be made to give Fraser Minten an opportunity.

Arguably, one of that trio should also depart at the expense of giving Alex Steeves a further look, since although his numbers haven’t delivered at the NHL level, his AHL success should earn him another look while the Leafs bottom six is struggling. (Similarly, after a bit more time getting AHL reps, it’s likely that Grebenkin is an ideal solution for the Leafs.)

The biggest piece that seems like it could have a benefit on the Leafs having a capable third line for producing offence is finding the right player to drop down to the third line to play with Domi and Minten. If the Leafs are looking for a big spark in that regard, William Nylander looks like an option, but from a practical standpoint, players like Max Pacioretty or Bobby McMann (when healthy) could be strong permanent fits.

As for the fourth line, the expectations are quite different. If they are sticking around, I’d suggest a Robertson – Holmberg – A. Nylander line could be an interested sheltered scoring experiment, possibly even with Max Domi taking some reps away from Holmberg.

In reality, a Lorentz – Holmberg – Dewar line looks like it finds the balance of what Berube should want from a depth line and so far this year that trio has a better track record for offence than the other alternatives anyway.

It’s hard to find fault in a team that presently sits with the 7th best points percentage in the league and those following the team closely will just have to acclimate to lower event, lower scoring hockey being part of the Leafs direction, but it seems like even with the present personnel there is an opportunity to improve the 5v5 offensive output at very little risk to the tighter defensive play.

Data from Natural Stat Trick

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