The start of free agency week hasn’t exactly gotten off to a slow start. There seem to be plenty of rumours either around the Leafs, Leafs adjacent, or potentially impactful to the Leafs. So here’s a brief recap of what is out there to get you caught up.
I’m told there’s some solid framework elements between the @Senators and @MapleLeafs however the potential completion of this deal is largely dependent on the comprehensive up to the minute medical due diligence by TML on Matt Murray’s health . @espn @NHL #HockeyTwitter
— Kevin Weekes (@KevinWeekes) July 11, 2022
This is obviously the big one to watch for Leafs fans, and it seems that the deal is essentially good to go and the Leafs doctors and front office are just deciding how good they feel about Matt Murray’s health. It never seems like an encouraging step, but better they do this and make their decision on complete data.
It’s very likely the Leafs will get around 50% salary retention for Murray. It also seems highly likely that the deal is going to be tilted largely in a Leafs direction for taking on this risk.
Here’s some more on Matt Murray from yesterday:
Friedman: Matt Murray talks intensifying between the Leafs and Sens
Hearing #Leafs will not be issuing a qualifying offer to Ondrej Kase, making him a UFA.
I’d expect Pierre Engvall will be qualified, but not 100% confirmed yet.
Not expecting many other surprises. #Canes plan to qualify Ethan Bear.@DailyFaceoff
— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) July 11, 2022
Kyle Dubas has previously stated his intention to qualify Pierre Engvall, but was on the fence about Kase. It appears his mind has been made up and Kase will hit unrestricted free agency. Kase is very much a player the Leafs will double back on when he isn’t arbitration eligible, but the idea of locking into an arbitration ruling on an injury riddled player like Kase would be difficult.
Still no word on the remaining Leafs RFAs.
From the 32 Thoughts Podcast: Campbell likely to Edmonton, Kuemper likely to Washington
At this stage in free agency we should probably assume statements like that are very much at the deal in principle stage and the players are highly likely to wind up in the locations listed. That means that Jack Campbell will join the ever-growing collection of former Leafs in Edmonton with Hyman, Barrie, and Ceci.
Moving on from Campbell isn’t something we should be too heartbroken about. His numbers took a dive as his workload increased and his high danger save percentage was terrible. Campbell is looking to be paid as a starter but it is questionable he’ll consistently be able to handle a starter’s workload.
As for Kuemper. If Kuemper is essentially off the market the Leafs focus on Matt Murray might make a lot more sense. It’s also likely that while the Leafs shouldn’t be dealing assets to bring in Murray, it’s possible the return isn’t going to be as valuable as the 7th overall + Murray for 16th overall deal that the Sabres and Sens were rumoured to have.
Brett Connolly (CHI) and Henrik Borgstrom (CHI) are on unconditional waivers for the purpose of a buyout.
— Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) July 11, 2022
The Blackhawks doing Blackhawk things should be impactful around the league. The amount of cap space they are clearing is setting them up to likely absorb a ton of Mrazek style bad contracts in the coming days and gear themselves up for a tanking season as well as holding a number of futures heading into another strong draft. Unfortunately for the Leafs, the contracts they have that they could want to unload are attached to players with no trade clauses, and you can bet that Chicago is now on the list of most players.
The Hawks being a depot for contracts could mean that Atlantic division teams like Florida tap into them in the coming days and that will be impactful for the Leafs.
Additionally, Brett Connolly isn’t a bad league minimum target, assuming that he’ll keep playing.
More on the Hawks decision to move on from Dylan Strome here:
Dylan Strome could fit with Maple Leafs as reports say he’s approaching free agency
Victor Mete and Adam Gaudette will not be receiving qualifying offer from #Sens, making them UFAs. https://t.co/7Zc8hMtq1M
— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) July 11, 2022
We’re starting to get more and more names of RFAs who didn’t receive qualifying offers. So far the Blackhawks seem to be the most interesting of the lot with Strome and Kubalik likely to not receive offers, but usable tweener depth like Gabriel Carlsson (Columbus), Victor Mete and Adam Gaudette (Sens), Evgeny Svechnikov (Jets), and Brandon Perlini (Oilers) are all now available.
Nicolas Aube-Kubel has been informed by the #Avs he will not receive a qualifying offer, according to a league source, which will make him an unrestricted free agent. He had 23 points in 74 games this season. He’s a strong forechecker and should have options on the open market.
— Peter Baugh (@Peter_Baugh) July 11, 2022
Aube-Kubel is a definite option for the Leafs as well.
Senators GM, Pierre Dorion is working it. Sounds like activity around veteran forward, Connor Brown has intensified. The Oilers are among a few times still in the mix there.
— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) July 11, 2022
Finally, former Leaf Connor Brown is being made available and since he is being shopped separately one can only assume he is not part of the Matt Murray trade as so many Leafs fans seem to want. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Leafs shouldn’t be exploring the idea of bringing him back, but I’d say that ship has sailed.
More From TheLeafsNation.com:
- Goaltending is the number one priority heading into free agency by Nick Barden
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Reviewing the Leafs’ 2022 Draft Class by Nick Richard
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Ondrej Kaše will cost too much to return to the Leafs, most likely by Ryan Hobart
